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Overconfidence among leaders is a major issue for organizations because it can turn a leadership strength into a strategic risk. Confidence supports decision-making, ambition, and the ability to mobilize teams. But when it becomes arrogance, it can undermine cooperation, learning, and sustainable performance.
This article explains how Hogan Assessments describes this phenomenon through the Bold derailer in the HDS (Hogan Development Survey). Readers will understand how to distinguish confidence from arrogance, which behaviors can weaken a leader, and which development strategies can help limit the negative effects of overconfidence.
For an executive, an HR leader, or a Talent Management professional, the issue is clear: personality assessment is not only about gaining self-knowledge. It also helps anticipate behavioral risks that may affect teams, decisions, and organizational success.
A halo-like glow shines blue against a dark background, symbolizing Hogan’s Bold derailer, associated with overconfidence and arrogance.
“You are wrong. I am right,” the boss declares. Later, when the opposite proves true, the narrative changes: “Listen, that was not my fault.”
If you have ever worked with a leader who could not acknowledge mistakes or listen to feedback, you have seen how overly confident leadership can create problems at work. In the worst cases, arrogance can sabotage goals, careers, and companies.
Self-confidence is a beneficial personality characteristic — until it goes too far. In Hogan language, confidence pushed into arrogance is described by the Bold derailer. So how can organizations mitigate the problems that stem from overconfident leadership? This article examines the personality characteristics, potential consequences, and development strategies that help leaders distinguish confidence from arrogance.
The three core Hogan inventories describe a leader’s everyday strengths, counterproductive tendencies, and values. These tools include the HPI (Hogan Personality Inventory), the HDS (Hogan Development Survey), and the MVPI (Motives, Values, Preferences Inventory).
The Hogan Development Survey (HDS) measures 11 characteristics that can become counterproductive when overused. These characteristics are called derailers, or dark-side personality characteristics. It is common for one or more derailers to create difficulties during periods of stress, anxiety, complacency, or boredom.
Practical definition: A derailer is a behavioral tendency that can become problematic when a leader is under pressure, lacks vigilance, or overestimates their own abilities.
The Bold derailer describes behaviors ranging from modest restraint to assertive self-promotion. Bold leaders are generally willing to put themselves forward; they pursue their goals and ambitions with energy and determination. They may appear exceptionally confident, or even convinced that they are entitled to certain privileges. They may also be reluctant to acknowledge mistakes, accept advice, or receive feedback.
Leaders who score high on the Bold scale often achieve success and power. One might think of Mary Barra, MBA, Chair and CEO of General Motors; Sheryl Sandberg, MBA, former COO of Meta Platforms and founder of LeanIn.org; or Dame Anna Wintour, media executive and former editor-in-chief of Vogue.
But boldness can have a dark side. Confident and competitive on one hand, but arrogant and demanding on the other, leaders whose Bold behaviors are unmanaged can become an obstacle to their own success.
In this video, Erin Lazarus, MS, Senior Director of Business Development, explains how Bold behaviors can influence leadership effectiveness.
In practice, a Bold leader can inspire their team through ambition and vision. But without strategic self-awareness, that same confidence may be perceived as arrogance, intimidation, or an inability to learn.
The HDS (Hogan Development Survey) measures behavioral patterns that can become unproductive and unsustainable, especially when taken to extremes. For Bold leaders, belief in their own worth is a positive characteristic. However, overconfidence can have negative effects when it creates problems in teamwork and collaboration.
Other expressions of Bold behavior include appearing impulsive, self-promoting, and excessively demanding. Bold leaders may overestimate their talents and accomplishments, ignore their limitations, and blame their mistakes on others. In this way, the leader who acts as if they are never wrong probably believes they deserve their leadership role, were born to accomplish great things, and will always succeed.
As talented and high-performing as a Bold leader may appear, their arrogant behavior can make them difficult to work with on a daily basis. These leaders tend to ignore feedback, test boundaries, and intimidate others. Without strategic self-awareness, executives who glorify their own ego may increase their risk-taking and leave damaged relationships behind them.
In concrete business terms, overconfidence can weaken the quality of decisions. When employees no longer dare to contradict a leader, weak signals disappear, mistakes are repeated, and teams eventually disengage.
Bold leaders may be satisfied with their performance as a result of their strong self-confidence. However, in order to avoid following the example of Sam Bankman-Fried, the entrepreneur convicted of criminal fraud, it may be useful to examine certain Bold actions to continue, start, and stop.
Bold leaders should continue cultivating their drive to accomplish great things. Their ability to see setbacks as opportunities brings optimism that elevates teams. They should also continue directing their competitive spirit outward, while moderating competition within their organization.
They should start examining the extent to which their communication style influences their team’s performance. Leaders who seem combative or arrogant may alienate employees without intending to.
Finally, Bold leaders should stop denying their mistakes, because this can create the impression that they are unable to learn from experience. The ability to acknowledge errors, apologize, and adjust course is crucial in volatile, high-stakes leadership roles.
For an executive, the difference between confidence and arrogance often lies in the ability to listen to objections, integrate feedback, and acknowledge facts, even when they contradict initial beliefs.
Confidence in leadership refers to the ability to make decisions, carry a vision, and act with assurance despite uncertainty.
Arrogance in leadership appears when that assurance becomes rigidity, refusal of feedback, self-overestimation, and a tendency to blame others.
In practice, confidence builds credibility. Arrogance gradually destroys collective trust.
Erin Lazarus, MS, Senior Director of Business Development, leads corporate solutions consulting and the sales organization at Hogan Assessments.
Personality directly influences how leaders make decisions, communicate, and mobilize their teams. When well managed, self-confidence supports ambition, resilience, and performance. When it becomes excessive, it can turn into arrogance, weaken collaboration, and compromise collective success.
The Bold derailer in the HDS (Hogan Development Survey) shows why personality assessment is a strategic tool for human resources. It helps identify strengths that may become risks, strengthen leaders’ self-awareness, and prevent behaviors that could undermine sustainable performance.
For organizations, the goal is not to reduce leaders’ ambition, but to direct it with clarity and discernment. Sustainable leadership depends on a demanding balance: enough confidence to decide, and enough humility to learn.
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